Why can one tonne of carbon be worth US$2.50 or US$1,000?
- Sergio Marcondes
- Jun 24
- 2 min read
A new executive briefing from Blend Group breaks down what really drives carbon credit pricing, and why Brazil is entering a window of appreciation.
In the carbon market, two tonnes of CO₂ can have exactly the same stated effect yet trade at prices that differ by hundreds of times. A forestry avoidance credit in Brazil traded at around US$2.50 per tonne in early 2025. At the other extreme, direct air capture credits are referenced between US$500 and over US$1,000. What accounts for this gap?
That is precisely the question driving Blend Group's new executive briefing, "Carbon credit types and price formation." Across six pages, the document distills how each credit category is priced, which variables explain the differences in value, and what forces should shape the price trajectory through 2030 — with a clear regional anchor in Latin America and Brazil, where the regulated market is beginning to redefine the supply-and-demand horizon.
A few highlights from the document
It's not the sector that sets the price — it's the nature of the climate effect. The briefing shows that the most relevant divide is not between forest, landfill, or technology, but between avoiding emissions and removing carbon already in the atmosphere. Durable removals are structurally worth more — and the gap keeps widening.
Pricing organizes into layers. The document consolidates reference ranges for 2025–2026: project-based REDD+ credits at the bottom (US$4 to 8), afforestation and restoration in the middle (averaging around US$22, and roughly US$38.70 in Brazil), and technological removals such as biochar (US$130 to 180) and enhanced rock weathering (above US$200) at the top.
Certification has become a pricing mechanism. The Core Carbon Principles (CCP) label has shifted from an entry requirement to a value differentiator: labeled credits trade at a premium estimated at up to 25%. Within a single category, the quality rating matters — REDD+ projects rated BBB traded at around US$9.40, versus US$4.00 for B-rated projects.
The market is bifurcating. Projections place removal bundles at around US$83 per tonne today, rising to roughly US$115 in the early 2030s, and estimate the removal market expanding from around US$2 billion to as much as US$50 billion by 2030. High-integrity credits tend to appreciate; low-quality ones remain under pressure.
The regulatory epicenter is Brazilian. Law 15,042/2024 established the Brazilian Emissions Trading System (SBCE), and the state of Amazonas's jurisdictional proposal under the ART/TREES architecture could become operational in 2027 and generate up to 200 million tonnes in credits — repositioning Brazilian jurisdictional REDD+ into a higher price and credibility tier.
A window of appreciation for the region
The reading the briefing proposes is straightforward: the combination of large-scale forest assets, a maturing regulatory framework, and global demand for high-integrity removals creates a window of appreciation for Latin American credits that pair verifiable permanence with robust social co-benefits. For anyone who invests, structures projects, or buys offsets, understanding this logic is no longer optional.
The full document includes the price-range table by credit type, the analysis of the five determinants of pricing, and the market references underpinning each projection.
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